Tag Archives: swing states

2012 Presidential Election: 11 Reasons Romney Will Defeat Obama

5 Nov

As the election winds down to the final hours, some Romney supporters I’ve talked to think that Obama has taken the momentum.

For the record, different polls show different results.

The liberal Huffington Post chose to focus on the final Pew Research Center election poll showing President Barack Obama with a ‘modest’ 3-point lead over Mitt Romney.

On the other hand, Gallup shows that Romney holds a 1-point lead over Obama. Thehill.com also reports that all other polls have the two in a dead heat.

Bottom line on who has the lead: no one really knows.

Polls may or may not be accurate, and I’ve had my share of incorrect predictions in the past since it’s not easy to predict other people’s behavior. But as we come down to the few wee hours before the big day, here are 11 reasons why I think Romney will win the 2012 Presidential Election:

  1. Independent voters. In the three most significant swing states (in terms of electoral votes), Romney has a significant lead over Obama among independent voters in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
  2. Senior voters. Romney also leads Obama among senior voters in these same swing states. Anecdotally, I’ve spoken with seniors who are livid with Obama for the frequent Medicare benefit cuts during his administration. Seniors may not know what Romney will do with entitlement programs, but they already know what Obama has done with such programs and they are incensed.
  3. Young voters. 51 percent of people ages 18-29 turned out to vote in 2008, second-highest turnout ever, and they voted for Obama over John McCain by a 2-to-1 ratio. Four years later, these same young voters are disenchanted, disillusioned and discouraged. They’ve seen Obama fail to deliver on his promise of being a different kind of politician. The Washington Post reported that Obama has been “infantilizing” these young college grads by forcing them to move back in with their parents due to the depressed economy. Many young voters may be disappointed enough to not vote this time around.
  4. State flipping. With Indiana and North Carolina, Romney is likely to flip two of the 12 states that went for Obama in 2008 that are currently toss-ups. If Obama retains the four states he easily won in 2008 (Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and Romney wins the three biggest swing states (Florida, Ohio and Virginia), then Romney would have a huge 266-253 lead in electoral voting. At that point, Obama would need to sweep the three remaining swing states—Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire—to win, while Romney would just need to secure one of those three to win.
  5. Black voters. While Obama reportedly still enjoys 96% support among blacks, that number still is going to take a hit. Some evangelical black voters who supported Obama in 2008 are no longer supporting him in 2012 due to Obama’s support for gay marriage. In additiona, a coalition of over 3,000 black pastors have publicly stated they will not stand with Obama this time, and it’s safe to assume that many in their congregations will follow suit. Even non-churchgoing black voters have expressed exasperation that despite a black president, [the quality of life for blacks] is “in the same spot as when Bush was president.”
  6. White voters. In 2008, McCain won over white voters by 12% over Obama as many white voters flocked to Obama’s camp in an attempt to lay claim to history. But this year, all four major polls show Romney is leading Obama by more than 20% over Obama, which—if it holds true—would be the biggest margin for that segment by any Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan.
  7. Jobless voters. During the time that the unemployment rate hit a staggering 10.0% in Oct 2009, Obama’s singular focus was to direct the Democratic-controlled Congress to address health care rather than to address the economy. Even with unemployment still standing at 7.8%, voters remember that Obama’s priorities were in the wrong order when he had a Democratic-controlled Congress for two years.
  8. Obama’s inexperience. The biggest criticism of Obama in 2008 was that he was inexperienced. McCain warned voters that America did not want a president who would be learning on the job; that America needed someone who knew what he would be doing from Day One. Four years later, America has reaped what it has sown. Being just a senator—and a junior one at that—Obama had little experience. What’s worse, senators, unlike governors, never lead anything. Senators can introduce bills but they are just one of 100 others just like him. Senators cannot dictate policy, make executive decisions or balance budgets. Romney, on the other hand, has the experience. Not just any experience but diversified and successful experience. He’s led businesses. He’s governed a state. He led it out of a budget deficit. And he led the Salt Lake City Olympics from a budget deficit into a surplus.
  9. Evangelical voters. Obama’s policies have been overtly against evangelical beliefs, from the president’s contraceptive mandate with no religious exception to his endorsement of same-sex marriage, and there were a surprising number of evangelicals, such as in battleground Iowa, who were romanced by the smooth-talking Obama in 2008 but are re-considering this time around. And Obama’s policies have also aggressively eroded religious freedoms, causing evangelical voters who voted for Obama in 2008 to vote for Romney in 2012.
  10. Foreign policy disasters. For a guy who is still trying to fool voters in these frenetic last campaign hours as a guy who will tell the truth, the Obama administration to this day still hasn’t told the truth about Benghazi. uperstorm Sandy may have rescued Obama from media attention on new damning evidence about Benghazigate, but so has the liberal media—CBS was caught trying to rescue Obama by not reporting his lies about Benghazi. Obama points to the assassination of Osama bin Laden as his foreign policy trump card but the reality is that al-Qaeda and Muslim fundamentalism is much more far-reaching than a singular Osama bin Laden. Rest assured that a new bid Laden-type leader will rise to fill the void left by bin Laden’s death. A much bigger issue is Obama’s minimization of Iran’s nuclear weapons program while simultaneously reducing our own nuclear weapons. Romney’s commitment to a strong American military is a clear contrast to Obama’s foreign policy.
  11. Newspaper endorsement flipping. With today’s blogosphere, newspaper endorsements don’t carry anywhere near the weight that they used to. Still, it’s significant that, according to one source, Romney flipped 12 newspaper endorsements that had gone to Obama in 2008 and that, according to another source, Romney flipped 28 newspaper endorsements.

So has Obama taken momentum? No. There is a lot of bleeding that Obama still has to try to stop. It’s like plumbing with multiple leaks. You may have stopped one leak, but there are ten others.

And little wonder. Obama represents failure. He represents deceit. And he represents inexperience.

Hope and change turned out to be smoke and mirrors.

A record $16 trillion debt. Lowered national credit rating. An even more crippled economy. The first-ever endorsement of same-sex marriage from a president. Heck, the U.S. even was the first site eliminated from 2016 Summer Olympics contention despite Obama’s personal involvement.

We want four more years of this utterly depressing state of the nation?

Hope and change is now on Romney’s side.  Hope that a man with a proven track record knows what it takes to turn this country around. Hope that we won’t have to settle for more of the last four years. Hope that America can stand tall and proud again, rather than floundering in a sea of incompetence.

Romney isn’t the perfect candidate but he is far more prepared and far more equipped to handle the challenges that face this great nation than Obama. We have seen what Obama has done, and we don’t like it.

November 6th is just hours away. Call me an optimist, but let’s make a vote for a fresh start, America! Let’s vote for Romney!

Mitt Romney on cusp of winning the 2012 Presidential Election

25 Oct

The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in a dead heat. Here’s what the Wall Street Journal reported in the first paragraph:

Mitt Romney has strengthened his image as the candidate best able to boost the economy and has fought President Barack Obama to a near-draw on who can best serve as commander in chief, helping turn the 2012 election into a tie among likely voters.

Both candidates hold 47% support from likely voters—where Obama once led Romney by 5 points a month ago, when the election was once touted as another easy win for the incumbent President.

Now, though, the race is deadlocked. As the Wall Street Journal notes:

Mr. Romney is close to erasing the president’s once-large advantage in perceived leadership on foreign policy. Closing that gap would moot the issue for many voters and put the spotlight squarely on economic issues or other concerns. The race now has all the makings of one of the closest in U.S. history.

The Journal also noted one of the biggest reasons for his freefall:

The danger for the president: His support has fallen to 36% of likely white voters in the new poll, a level seen as perilous by political operatives on both sides. Exit polls in 2008 showed he won around 43% of the white vote, which accounts for over 70% of the overall electorate.

In fact, the latest AP poll, which is even more recent than the Journal‘s poll, shows Romney with the lead, 47%, to Obama’s 45%!

However, both the Journal and the AP predict that despite Romney’s surging growth in the popular vote, Romney’s challenge lies in winning the electoral vote. And that is the focus of today’s Insightful post.

Those of us Insightful people know that such commentary is not to be accepted merely at face value. Let’s dig a little deeper at that perception of a tough electoral win for Romney.

What do the Electoral Maps currently say?

Here are five of the most well-known electoral college maps as of this writing:

Not surprisingly, the liberal outlets are projecting the biggest Obama leads here.

What do the Electoral Maps really show?

To gain context, we need to look back to the 2008 presidential election between Obama and McCain.

Now let’s analyze the states with the closest margins of victory (<10%) for Obama in 2008:

  • North Carolina (15 electoral votes), 0.33%
  • Indiana (11 electoral votes), 1.0%
  • Florida (27 electoral votes), 2.8%
  • Ohio (20 electoral votes), 4.6%
  • Virginia (13 electoral votes), 6.3%
  • Colorado (9 electoral votes), 9.0%
  • Iowa (7 electoral votes), 9.5%
  • New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), 9.6%

In 2012:

  • North Carolina is leaning Romney (according to two electoral maps, toss-ups in the other three maps)
  • Indiana is strongly leaning Romney (all five electoral maps have Indiana for Romney)
  • Florida is a toss-up in all five electoral maps
  • Ohio is a toss-up in all five electoral maps
  • Virginia is a toss-up in all five electoral maps
  • Colorado is a toss-up in all five electoral maps
  • Iowa is a toss-up in all five electoral maps
  • New Hampshire is a toss-up in all five electoral maps

Thus, Romney looks to have picked up two states (and 26 electoral votes) that went for Obama in 2008.

Now let’s look at the states with the closest margins of victory (<10%) for McCain in 2008:

  • Missouri (10 electoral votes), 0.13%
  • Montana (3 electoral votes), 2.3%
  • Georgia (16 electoral votes), 5.2%
  • Arizona (11 electoral votes), 8.5%
  • South Dakota (3 electoral votes), 8.4%
  • North Dakota (3 electoral votes), 8.6%
  • South Carolina (9 electoral votes), 9.0%

In 2012, all seven of these states are going to Romney.

What we know so far, which is consistent with anecdotal evidence, is that everyone who voted Republican in 2008 is sticking Republican in 2012—but two states that voted Democratic in 2008 have now seen Obama’s failures and are changing to Republican in 2012.

That is, in recent weeks, Romney hasn’t lost any ground, but Obama has. Romney has flipped two states to his side.

The impact of the debates

Could the debates have an impact on the presidential race in these swing states? In other words, with all three presidential debates and the lone vice-presidential debate in the books, how would one summarize the entire package of 2012 debates?

For me, it’s this: Romney looked like the Commander-in-Chief; Obama looked like the challenger.

In the first debate, Obama was despondent, disconnected and rambling. Romney looked confident, assertive and authoritative. If you were dropped in from a time machine and had no idea who these two candidates were, you almost certainly would have guessed that Romney was the incumbent President and Obama was a neophyte challenger.

In the vice-presidential debate, Vice-President Joe Biden rolled his eyes, snorted and guffawed inappropriately, and used the Twitter-friendly-but-not-vice-presidential line “That is a bunch of malarkey.” In contrast, Paul Ryan came across as significantly more professional. The liberal media excused Biden’s behavior as “just Joe being Joe”. However, in a nationally televised debate, Joe is not supposed to be Joe the Buffoon—he’s supposed to be the Vice-President.

In the second debate, Obama was fiery, argumentative and confrontational. Romney counterpunched but generally was not as snide as Obama was (“Not true,” “Get the transcript”, “My pension isn’t as big as yours”, etc.). Again, if you were dropped in from a time machine and had no idea who these candidates were, you probably would have guessed that Romney was the Commander-in-Chief and Obama looked like a playground bully.

In the third debate, Obama was attacking, angry and accusatory. Romney was professional, calm and firm. Again, the contrast was very clear: Romney projected himself like a cool Commander-in-Chief while Obama projected himself as the angry, hostile and volatile challenger.

Newt Gingrich noticed the same thing.

So these debates should have an impact. If you’ve read any books on public speaking with a political focus, you already know the tremendous importance of visual appearance as being much more important than the auditory (i.e., the substance of their comments). While pundits tried to spin who won and who lost each debate and the various fact-checkers and Truth Squads parsed claims, if you had muted the TV as Gingrich suggested when watching the debates, you would have clearly seen who looked authoritative and who looked like the sneering challenger.

A little-known fact about the remaining swing states

Aside from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Virginia and New Hampshire, there are four more swing states. Why haven’t I mentioned them yet?

Because they had given Obama double-digit percentage victories back in 2008.

You see, in 2008, Obama comfortably won the following states by the following percentages over McCain:

  • Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), 10.4%
  • Nevada (6 electoral votes), 12.5%
  • Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), 13.9%
  • Michigan (16 electoral votes), 16.5%

Now, those states are all considered toss-ups (although the more liberal CNN and NY Times electoral maps have Michigan and Pennsylvania leaning Obama).

Just to emphasize: this is no small feat.

Romney has the realistic opportunity to flip 2-4 states that had previously been easy wins for Obama!

Clearly, voters are recognizing Obama’s record-breaking economic ineptitude and inability to foster the bipartisan politics he had promised. Moreover, swing voters are starting to also see that Romney is not just an “anybody but Obama” candidate but a legitimate contender who brings genuine leadership, business acumen and actual bi-partisan accomplishment as a governor.

Heck, even in Obama’s home town of Chicago, a mutual fund investor even said that he voted for Obama in 2008 but if he saw Obama today, he not only wouldn’t vote for him, he would actually punch him in the face!

Wow. Talk about Obama’s incompetence stirring up the emotions of independent voters in 2012!

The bottom line

Anybody can offer an opinion. But the above facts show very objectively that Romney has a very real chance of unseating Obama. Romney will need to focus on the biggest swing states, which are, in order:

  • Florida (27 electoral votes)
  • Ohio (20 electoral votes)
  • Virginia (13 electoral votes)
  • Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
  • Iowa (7 electoral votes)
  • Nevada (6 electoral votes)

And given the number of electoral votes at stake, Romney also should fight hard for the following two states, regardless of what CNN and the NY Times say:

  • Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)
  • Michigan (16 electoral votes)

Here’s more incredible bad news for Obama: Romney has erased his once-untouchable 16-point lead among female voters!

Yes, Romney is on the cusp of winning the election—something that was previously thought to be impossible as recently as just a month ago. Romney supporters should be highly encouraged!

Not only that but they should also determine how they can help do their part to aggressively do grass-roots campaigning in those key swing states. For example, some Democrats in the Chicago area are planning to bus down to Iowa to campaign for Obama; hopefully, an army of Republicans will be willing to do the same for Romney.

If grassroots campaign traveling is not possible, how about blogging, tweeting or other activities that can generate positive buzz for Romney in these last two weeks? Think of ways in which you can help.

Victory is too close to sit back and let it slip through our fingers. Go out and do something for Romney!