As the election winds down to the final hours, some Romney supporters I’ve talked to think that Obama has taken the momentum.
For the record, different polls show different results.
The liberal Huffington Post chose to focus on the final Pew Research Center election poll showing President Barack Obama with a ‘modest’ 3-point lead over Mitt Romney.
On the other hand, Gallup shows that Romney holds a 1-point lead over Obama. Thehill.com also reports that all other polls have the two in a dead heat.
Bottom line on who has the lead: no one really knows.
Polls may or may not be accurate, and I’ve had my share of incorrect predictions in the past since it’s not easy to predict other people’s behavior. But as we come down to the few wee hours before the big day, here are 11 reasons why I think Romney will win the 2012 Presidential Election:
- Independent voters. In the three most significant swing states (in terms of electoral votes), Romney has a significant lead over Obama among independent voters in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
- Senior voters. Romney also leads Obama among senior voters in these same swing states. Anecdotally, I’ve spoken with seniors who are livid with Obama for the frequent Medicare benefit cuts during his administration. Seniors may not know what Romney will do with entitlement programs, but they already know what Obama has done with such programs and they are incensed.
- Young voters. 51 percent of people ages 18-29 turned out to vote in 2008, second-highest turnout ever, and they voted for Obama over John McCain by a 2-to-1 ratio. Four years later, these same young voters are disenchanted, disillusioned and discouraged. They’ve seen Obama fail to deliver on his promise of being a different kind of politician. The Washington Post reported that Obama has been “infantilizing” these young college grads by forcing them to move back in with their parents due to the depressed economy. Many young voters may be disappointed enough to not vote this time around.
- State flipping. With Indiana and North Carolina, Romney is likely to flip two of the 12 states that went for Obama in 2008 that are currently toss-ups. If Obama retains the four states he easily won in 2008 (Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and Romney wins the three biggest swing states (Florida, Ohio and Virginia), then Romney would have a huge 266-253 lead in electoral voting. At that point, Obama would need to sweep the three remaining swing states—Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire—to win, while Romney would just need to secure one of those three to win.
- Black voters. While Obama reportedly still enjoys 96% support among blacks, that number still is going to take a hit. Some evangelical black voters who supported Obama in 2008 are no longer supporting him in 2012 due to Obama’s support for gay marriage. In additiona, a coalition of over 3,000 black pastors have publicly stated they will not stand with Obama this time, and it’s safe to assume that many in their congregations will follow suit. Even non-churchgoing black voters have expressed exasperation that despite a black president, [the quality of life for blacks] is “in the same spot as when Bush was president.”
- White voters. In 2008, McCain won over white voters by 12% over Obama as many white voters flocked to Obama’s camp in an attempt to lay claim to history. But this year, all four major polls show Romney is leading Obama by more than 20% over Obama, which—if it holds true—would be the biggest margin for that segment by any Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan.
- Jobless voters. During the time that the unemployment rate hit a staggering 10.0% in Oct 2009, Obama’s singular focus was to direct the Democratic-controlled Congress to address health care rather than to address the economy. Even with unemployment still standing at 7.8%, voters remember that Obama’s priorities were in the wrong order when he had a Democratic-controlled Congress for two years.
- Obama’s inexperience. The biggest criticism of Obama in 2008 was that he was inexperienced. McCain warned voters that America did not want a president who would be learning on the job; that America needed someone who knew what he would be doing from Day One. Four years later, America has reaped what it has sown. Being just a senator—and a junior one at that—Obama had little experience. What’s worse, senators, unlike governors, never lead anything. Senators can introduce bills but they are just one of 100 others just like him. Senators cannot dictate policy, make executive decisions or balance budgets. Romney, on the other hand, has the experience. Not just any experience but diversified and successful experience. He’s led businesses. He’s governed a state. He led it out of a budget deficit. And he led the Salt Lake City Olympics from a budget deficit into a surplus.
- Evangelical voters. Obama’s policies have been overtly against evangelical beliefs, from the president’s contraceptive mandate with no religious exception to his endorsement of same-sex marriage, and there were a surprising number of evangelicals, such as in battleground Iowa, who were romanced by the smooth-talking Obama in 2008 but are re-considering this time around. And Obama’s policies have also aggressively eroded religious freedoms, causing evangelical voters who voted for Obama in 2008 to vote for Romney in 2012.
- Foreign policy disasters. For a guy who is still trying to fool voters in these frenetic last campaign hours as a guy who will tell the truth, the Obama administration to this day still hasn’t told the truth about Benghazi. uperstorm Sandy may have rescued Obama from media attention on new damning evidence about Benghazigate, but so has the liberal media—CBS was caught trying to rescue Obama by not reporting his lies about Benghazi. Obama points to the assassination of Osama bin Laden as his foreign policy trump card but the reality is that al-Qaeda and Muslim fundamentalism is much more far-reaching than a singular Osama bin Laden. Rest assured that a new bid Laden-type leader will rise to fill the void left by bin Laden’s death. A much bigger issue is Obama’s minimization of Iran’s nuclear weapons program while simultaneously reducing our own nuclear weapons. Romney’s commitment to a strong American military is a clear contrast to Obama’s foreign policy.
- Newspaper endorsement flipping. With today’s blogosphere, newspaper endorsements don’t carry anywhere near the weight that they used to. Still, it’s significant that, according to one source, Romney flipped 12 newspaper endorsements that had gone to Obama in 2008 and that, according to another source, Romney flipped 28 newspaper endorsements.
So has Obama taken momentum? No. There is a lot of bleeding that Obama still has to try to stop. It’s like plumbing with multiple leaks. You may have stopped one leak, but there are ten others.
And little wonder. Obama represents failure. He represents deceit. And he represents inexperience.
Hope and change turned out to be smoke and mirrors.
A record $16 trillion debt. Lowered national credit rating. An even more crippled economy. The first-ever endorsement of same-sex marriage from a president. Heck, the U.S. even was the first site eliminated from 2016 Summer Olympics contention despite Obama’s personal involvement.
We want four more years of this utterly depressing state of the nation?
Hope and change is now on Romney’s side. Hope that a man with a proven track record knows what it takes to turn this country around. Hope that we won’t have to settle for more of the last four years. Hope that America can stand tall and proud again, rather than floundering in a sea of incompetence.
Romney isn’t the perfect candidate but he is far more prepared and far more equipped to handle the challenges that face this great nation than Obama. We have seen what Obama has done, and we don’t like it.
November 6th is just hours away. Call me an optimist, but let’s make a vote for a fresh start, America! Let’s vote for Romney!